From Energy Security to National Security

For delegates heading to this year’s New York Climate Action Week, much has changed in the twelve months since last year’s gathering.  

The Iran War has driven a surge in global oil and gas prices, once again underlining the exposure of energy markets to geopolitical shocks and disruption to fossil fuel supplies.  

With this being the second fossil fuel shock in the last five years, and it estimated that one fossil fuel spike per decade between now and 2050 would add $400 billion to UK borrowing, equivalent of 13% of GDP by 2050, with no improvement in economic competitiveness, the case for clean energy as a means for countries to strengthen their energy independence and security is gaining increasing international traction. 

But the events of the past year also point to a broader shift in how we need to think about climate risk. 

A record-breaking summer of heatwaves, wildfires and drought across Europe alongside  devastating floods in Nepal, which resulted in the deaths of more than 1,300 people and economic damage estimated between $4-5 billion, have demonstrated how increasingly severe and unpredictable climate shocks are incurring increasingly severe economic and human costs.  

In his opening address at the Climate Group’s Opening Ceremony on Monday, UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband put this new reality at the centre of his speech; arguing that having recognised the relationship between the energy transition and energy security, governments around the world now need to go one step further and acknowledge that climate change and nature loss represent an urgent national security issue. 

In making his argument, Miliband referred to the UK government’s nature security assessment. Released earlier this year, the assessment outlines how the degradation of natural systems is already disrupting food, water, health and supply chains, creating pressures on geopolitical instability which are set to intensify unless major interventions are made to safeguard the ecosystems underpinning economic prosperity and security. 

The relationship between climate change, economic resilience and national security was also one we explored during our Main Stage session, The Price of Delay: Why Climate Action is an Economic, Societal and Security Imperative, featuring Sandy Trust, Professor Tim Lenton, Professor Nicola Ranger and Steve Waygood.  

During the session Professor Nicola Ranger also referred to the nature security assessment, stressing that the findings highlight that the threat posed by global ecosystem degradation should not be viewed as alarmist, but realistic, with the risk of feedback loops which could lead to as much as a 6-12% loss in GDP by 2050.  

The significance of these warnings goes beyond climate policy. 

As Miliband noted, for decades climate change has largely been treated as an environmental challenge, separate from the core business of economic growth and national security. 

But as its impacts become increasingly visible, so too are the consequences for energy security, economic competitiveness and geopolitical stability.  

The UK has begun to set out this broader understanding of climate and nature risk. The challenge now is to build the same recognition internationally, creating the shared understanding needed to drive action at a scale commensurate with the risks we face.